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Latest Mastercard Report Forecasts Exponential Boom in Outbound Travel from Asia Pacific’s Emerging Markets
January 24, 2017
SINGAPORE – 24 January 2017 – According to the Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific (2016 to 2021) report by Mastercard, outbound travelers from Emerging Asia Pacific1 currently outnumber those from Developed Asia Pacific2 by one and a half times. Furthermore, this figure is poised to grow more than twice as fast over the next five years (7.6 percent vs. 3.3 percent CAGR).
Collectively, Asia Pacific markets are expected to grow by 6 percent annually from 2016 to 2021.
Not surprisingly, the largest outbound travel market in 2021 is expected to be China with 103.4 million trips – constituting 40 percent of all Asia Pacific outbound travel, nearly four times that of the #2 and #3 markets being South Korea (25.6 million) and India (21.5 million) respectively.
Forecasted international outbound trips from the top 10 Asia Pacific markets by 2021, include:
| 1. China – 103.4 million | 6. Malaysia – 14.2 million |
| 2. South Korea – 25.6 million | 7. Australia – 11.8 million |
| 3. India – 21.5 million | 8. Singapore – 11.7 million |
| 4. Japan – 19.4 million | 9. Indonesia – 10.6 million |
| 5. Taiwan – 16.3 million | 10. Thailand – 9.1 million |
Eric Schneider, Senior Vice President, Asia Pacific, Mastercard Advisors, commented, “The burgeoning middle class is driving the growth of outbound travel in Asia Pacific, along with other trends such as the emergence of the Asian millennial traveler and on the other end of the spectrum the senior traveler, as well as new technology and infrastructure developments. Asia Pacific travelers will continue to fuel global tourism growth in years to come, providing vast opportunities for businesses to benefit through the development of products and solutions that seek to improve their overall travel experiences.”
Myanmar is projected to be the fastest growing outbound travel market with a 10.6 percent annual growth rate over the next five years, followed by Vietnam (9.5 percent), Indonesia (8.6 percent), China (8.5 percent), and India (8.2 percent). Among developed Asia Pacific markets, the fastest growing are South Korea (3.8 percent), followed by Singapore (3.5 percent), Australia (3.5 percent) and New Zealand (3.4 percent).
Forecasted top 10 fastest growing Asia Pacific markets by international outbound trips (2016-2021 CAGR), include:
| 1. Myanmar – 10.6 percent | 6. Sri Lanka – 6.1 percent |
| 2. Vietnam – 9.5 percent | 7. Thailand – 4.8 percent |
| 3. Indonesia – 8.6 percent | 8. Philippines – 4.4 percent |
| 4. China – 8.5 percent | 9. South Korea – 3.8 percent |
| 5. India – 8.2 percent | 10. Australia/Singapore/Malaysia – 3.5 percent |
Outbound travel growth versus real GDP growth
According to the study, outbound travel is forecast to grow faster than real GDP3. Outbound travel growth tends to be higher than real GDP growth for emerging markets compared to developed markets (except for Japan) where outbound travel growth is much closer to their forecasted real GDP growth. Emerging markets such as Myanmar (10.6 percent vs. 7.7 percent), Vietnam (9.5 percent vs. 6.2 percent), Indonesia (8.6 percent vs. 5.7 percent), Thailand (4.8 percent vs. 3.1 percent) and China (8.5 percent vs. 6 percent) are expected to grow faster than real GDP.
Growth of outbound travel in relation to total number of households
By 2021, all developed markets in Asia Pacific (except for Japan) will have a ratio of over 100 percent4 for outbound travel trips to total number of households. Households in Singapore (693.6 percent), Hong Kong (248.9 percent) and Taiwan (232 percent) have the highest propensity to travel abroad.
Among emerging markets, Malaysia is expected to record the highest ratio of 198.7 percent by 2021, whereas India (7.3 percent), Bangladesh (7.4 percent), Myanmar (14.6 percent) and Indonesia (15.4 percent) are among the lowest, indicating strong growth potential for outbound travel in these markets over the next ten to twenty years, assuming an increasing propensity to travel is combined with a healthy increase in households.
Download the full report here: http://news.mstr.cd/2hI8SMc
[1] China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka
[2] Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand
[3] Except for Bangladesh, Philippines and Malaysia
[4] While a ratio of 100% means on average that each household has at least one person who makes a trip abroad each year, in practice it is more likely that a certain percentage of households make multiple trips overseas each year, implying that there are households that do not go abroad at all
2016-2021 Outbound Travel Forecast
| Outbound trips (mn) |
Exclusions | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016e | 2021 | 2016-2021 CAGR |
Real GDP Growth 2016-2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 3.5% | 2.9% | |
| Bangladesh | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9% | 6.8% | |
| China | excludes trips to HK and Macau |
38.8 | 48.1 | 61.6 | 68.7 | 103.4 | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Hong Kong | excludes travel to China and Macau |
4.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| India | 11.6 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 21.5 | 8.2% | 7.6% | |
| Indonesia | excludes trips to Singapore by Sea and Same-day trips to Malaysia |
6.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Japan | 17.5 | 16.9 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 19.4 | 2.9% | 0.5% | |
| Malaysia | excludes cross border land travel to Singapore |
10.8 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 3.5% | 4.9% |
| Myanmar | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 10.6% | 7.7% | |
| New Zealand | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4% | 2.4% | |
| Philippines | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.4% | 6.4% | |
| Singapore | excludes cross border land travel to Malaysia |
8.6 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| South Korea | 14.8 | 16.1 | 19.3 | 21.3 | 25.6 | 3.8% | 3.0% | |
| Sri Lanka | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 6.1% | 5.0% | |
| Taiwan | 11.1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 14.1 | 16.3 | 2.9% | 2.6% | |
| Thailand | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 4.8% | 3.1% | |
| Vietnam | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 9.5% | 6.2% | |
| Total - 17 markets | 152.1 | 165.7 | 186.5 | 202.7 | 271.4 | 6.0% | 4.5% | |
| Asia Pacific Developed Markets | 67.7 | 70.3 | 74.7 | 80.4 | 94.6 | 3.3% | 2.4% | |
| Asia Pacific Emerging Markets | 84.4 | 95.4 | 111.8 | 122.3 | 176.8 | 7.6% | 5.9% |
About the Mastercard Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific Report
The Mastercard Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific Report presents an update of Asia Pacific’s regional outlook of outbound travel from 2016 to 2021 at various household income ranges combined with a five-year forecast of household growth. The data is taken from the 2011 to 2016 editions of the Mastercard Survey on Consumer Purchasing Priorities – Travel. Data for outbound travel from 2013 to 2015 was taken from the national statistics boards of the relevant markets, and that for 2015 and 2016 were calculated using estimates from the 2016 edition of the Mastercard Asia Pacific Destinations Index.
About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.